On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers clash at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon — a game that’s less about standings and more about momentum, money, and massive scoring trends. The Suns, sitting at 8-6 or 9-6 depending on the source, arrive with a four-game winning streak. The Trail Blazers, at 6-7 or 6-8, are reeling — losers of four of their last five, and a stunning 0-5 against the spread in that stretch. But here’s the twist: despite their struggles, the Blazers are still favored by 2 to 2.5 points. Why? Because in Portland, home court still matters. And because the total points line? It’s practically begging for fireworks.
Why the Odds Are All Over the Place
Betting markets don’t agree on much here. Action Network lists the Trail Blazers as -2 favorites with a 235.5-point total. FOX Sports goes with -2.5 and a 237.5 total. Covers.com and OddsCrowd.com hover between 236.5 and 237.0. These aren’t just minor differences — they’re signals of uncertainty. Oddsmakers are split because the teams’ styles don’t match their records. The Suns play fast. The Blazers, even when losing, can’t help but shoot. And when they play each other? Chaos ensues.The Public Is Betting With Their Hearts — Not Their Heads
Here’s what’s wild: 59% of bets are on the Suns, but only 41% of the actual money is on them. Meanwhile, 43% of bets are on the Trail Blazers, but 59% of the cash is on them. That means sharp bettors are quietly loading up on Portland. Why? Because the Blazers are 2-6 against the spread on the road this season — but they’re 5-1 in their last six home games going over the total. And the public? They’re all-in on the Over. A staggering 78% of the money is on the game finishing above 235.5 points. That’s not just a trend — it’s a stampede. Four of Portland’s last five games have gone over. Five of their last six home games? Over. The Suns? Four of their 14 games this season have cleared 237.5. Together, they average 240.3 points per game. That’s 2.8 points above the highest line offered. It’s not a guess — it’s math.Historical Patterns That Can’t Be Ignored
The last time these two met? Portland covered a +4.5 spread at home. In six of their last seven head-to-head matchups at the Moda Center, the Blazers have done the same. That’s not luck. That’s pattern. And while Portland’s overall record looks shaky — 0-5 ATS in their last five — their scoring hasn’t dipped. They’ve gone over the total in 8 of their last 13 games this season, even when they’ve lost. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s last five games have all gone over the total, too. The last five? All over. The last ten? Nine over. This isn’t a fluke. It’s the rhythm of these teams. Even when they’re struggling, they play with abandon. And in Portland, the crowd feeds it.Expert Picks and the Quiet Edge
FOX Sports predicts a 122-117 Trail Blazers win — with a pick on the -2.5 spread and the Over 237.5. That’s not just a guess. It’s based on the fact that Portland’s last three home games have averaged 124 points. Phoenix? They’ve scored 117+ in six of their last seven. So even if Portland loses the game, they’re likely to hit 120. And if the Suns hit 117? That’s the exact team total set by Action Network — at +115 for the under. That’s a red flag. Under 117.5? Unlikely. Under 120.5 in the first half? That’s where Scores24.live sees value. Both teams tend to start slow — then explode in the third quarter. So betting the Over on the full game? Smart. Betting the Under in the first half? Even smarter.
What This Means for Your Bet
The Blazers are bad against the spread. But they’re dangerous at home. The Suns are hot. But they’re road warriors with a shaky defense. The real story? The total. With 78% of money on the Over, and both teams averaging 240+ combined points, the line feels like a suggestion — not a barrier. If you’re betting this game, don’t just chase the favorite. Look at the pace. Look at the history. Look at the fact that Portland’s last six home games have gone over by an average of 11.3 points. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a system.When the Game Matters More Than the Record
This isn’t just another November game. It’s a microcosm of how NBA betting works today. Records lie. Trends don’t. The Trail Blazers are 6-8 — but they’ve outscored opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions at home. The Suns are 8-6 — but they’ve allowed 118.9 points per game on the road. Combine that with the Moda Center’s electric atmosphere, and you’ve got a recipe for a 120-122 slugfest. And with NBC/Peacock broadcasting nationally, millions will see it. The question isn’t who wins. It’s whether the scoreboard will still be ticking when the final buzzer sounds.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the public betting heavily on the Suns despite their weaker record?
The public is drawn to the Suns’ recent four-game winning streak and their offensive firepower, even though they’re 8-6 on the road. But while 59% of bets are on Phoenix, only 41% of the actual money is — indicating sharp bettors see value elsewhere. The Suns’ defense on the road has been porous, allowing 119+ points per game, making them a risky pick despite the momentum.
Why is the Over at 78% despite varying total lines?
The teams combine for an average of 240.3 points per game — 2.8 above even the highest total of 237.5. Portland has gone over in 8 of 13 home games this season, and Phoenix has cleared 237.5 in four of 14 games. Add in the Blazers’ 5-1 record on the Over in their last six home games, and the trend is undeniable. The market is reacting to historical scoring patterns, not just current records.
Is the Trail Blazers’ 0-5 ATS record a reason to avoid them?
Not necessarily. While Portland is 0-5 ATS in their last five, they’ve covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against the Suns. Their scoring hasn’t dropped — they’ve just lost close games by 3-5 points. The market is punishing them for losses, not performance. In fact, their last three home games have averaged 124 points — well above their team total of 118.5.
What’s the best betting strategy for this game?
The strongest play is the Over 235.5, especially at -110. For more precision, consider the Under 120.5 points in the first half — both teams start slow, then accelerate in the third quarter. Also watch the Suns’ team total of 117.5 — they’ve hit that number in six of their last seven games. If you’re hedging, bet the Suns +1.5 and the Over 235.5 together — both have strong historical support.
How does home court affect this matchup?
At the Moda Center, the Trail Blazers are a completely different team. They’ve gone 5-1 on the Over in their last six home games and covered +4.5 in six of their last seven against Phoenix. The crowd energy, the rhythm of the arena, and their offensive identity all sharpen at home. Even with a losing record, Portland is a much tougher out here — which is why the line, despite their ATS slump, remains tight.
Will this game be televised nationally?
Yes. The game will air nationally on NBC and stream via Peacock, giving it a wide audience. National broadcasts often mean higher stakes and more betting volume, which can influence line movement. With both teams trending offensively and the public heavily favoring the Over, this is one of the most-watched late-night NBA games of the week.
